Reports

What lies ahead for the EU ETS

The Fit-for-55 climate package (FF55) has reformed the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). Most importantly, the linear reduction factor (LRF), determining how fast the cap is reduced over time, has been revised. If the new LRF is sustained after 2030, the cap will zero in 2039 instead of in 2058 (for more details, see section 2.1). This has led to an increase of the price of emission allowances which has significantly strengthened the incentives for emission reductions.

However, as we get closer to 2030, concerns have been raised that the allowances supply may not be enough to balance the demand. If we look further ahead, towards 2040, sooner or later allowances will become scarce, since it is likely that there will be residual emissions in for instance the aviation sector.

This report presents a set of alternatives to deal with these challenges. We also look at the future need for carbon dioxide removals (CDR) and how to incentivize these in the EU. We also brieflydiscuss how the EU has responded to the US Inflation Reduction Act through the EU Net Zero Industrial Act (NZIA). This policy report has been supported by funds from the NEPP-program (North European Energy Perspectives) and builds, in part, on previous work done within the research program Mistra Carbon Exit.