Policy-driven growth of technologies to accelerate climate action
More than 70% of climate policies target low-carbon technologies, with hopes that policy support will trigger tipping points and self-reinforcing growth. In practice, however, trajectories of policy-driven technologies remain difficult to explain and anticipate because their growth is nonlinear and often constrained by backlash, policy reversals and systemic barriers. In this Perspective, we develop a framework to explain, diagnose, and anticipate the growth of policy-driven technologies through four phases.