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Scientific publications

2026/01/21

Mind the gap: Mixed-methods approach to investigate transition bottlenecks to low-carbon energy futures

Three techno-economic cases are investigated; one in which the demand for electricity is met to the lowest cost to society resulting in a high share of onshore wind power, one with economic support for nuclear power and one with economic support for offshore wind power. A transition to the three different future electricity systems is...
2026/01/21

Do Energy Security Crises Accelerate Decarbonisation? The Case of REPowerEU

This paper examines the effects of the 2022 energy crisis on the European Union (EU)’s energy transition, using policy analysis combined with a quantitative assessment of renewable energy trends, forecasts, and targets. We analyse the ambition, implementation, and outcomes of the REPowerEU plan, the main response to the crisis. In an unprecedented move, REPowerEU securitised...
2025/11/26

Turbine siting in relation to wind speed: Insights from historical deployment patterns for energy system modeling

Most turbines are deployed at sites with wind speeds higher than the regional mean. Wind turbines are sited at similar average wind speeds over time. Heuristics based on historical data site wind capacity in the 70–90 % windiest areas. Cost-optimal siting of turbines in ESOMs deviates from historical deployment.
2025/10/27

Spatial heterogeneity in deployment and upscaling of wind power in Swedish municipalities

Wind power allocation in Sweden is not primarily determined by techno-economic factors like wind speed. Deployment mechanisms evolve over time possibly due to technological upscaling. Older small-scale wind power leveraged agricultural land and local experience. Modern large-scale wind power is deployed in municipalities with supportive siting policy and high voter turnout.
2025/10/09

Electrifying tensions: Stakeholder narratives to electrification of industry and transport in Sweden

Large-scale electrification of industry and transport is central to the decarbonization of the energy sector. Rapid transformation of the existing electricity system, however, presents significant challenges. Using the Q-methodology, this study examines challenges to the electrification of industry and transport in Sweden from the viewpoints of key stakeholders.

2025/08/23

Conceptualising and measuring acceleration of mature policy-driven technologies: the case of onshore wind power in Europe

Accelerating mature low-carbon technologies is vital for sustainability transitions, yet little is known about how to measure, explain, or anticipate such acceleration. The S-curve theory assumes continuous acceleration up to an inflection point, followed by a steady slowdown. Using three decades of onshore wind data from 18 European countries, we challenge this idealised view. We identify turning points in deployment and propose metrics suited to both linear and non-linear growth.
2025/08/15

Green Industrial Megaprojects: A Welfare Economics Perspective

The growing popularity of large-scale, state-supported investments, especially those that are connected to the green transition, raises difficult normative and analytical questions. In this essay we address the welfare dimension of these initiatives by revisiting the foundations of cost–benefit analysis (CBA) in public decision-making.

2025/08/06

How protective are border carbon taxes for Canadian industry? The critical role of US emissions pricing

Border carbon taxes are considered as an important instrument to promote sustainable practices abroad and to level the playing field for domestic emission‐intensive and trade‐exposed (EITE) industries. We find that US emissions pricing plays a critical role in the effectiveness of border carbon taxes in protecting the international competitiveness of Canadian EITE producers. Border carbon taxes are more effective when the US follows the other OECD countries with stringent CO2 emissions pricing than when the US abstains from emissions pricing. In the latter case, border carbon taxes reduce the competitiveness of Canadian EITE export supply to the US (Canada's most important export destination), weakening the initial protective effect of border carbon taxes on the Canadian domestic market.
2025/08/06

Electrification of the energy-intensive basic materials industry – Implications for the European electricity system

A techno-economic optimization model is developed to evaluate the impacts that the electrification of industry will have on investments in and operation of the European electricity system as well as the impact that the availability of low-cost electricity will have on the spatial distribution of future industrial plants and their production. The modeling includes trading of different types of commodities, including hot-briquetted iron, methanol and hydrogen.
2025/08/06

Measures against Carbon Leakage – Combining Output-Based Allocation with Consumption Taxes

Countries with ambitious climate targets are concerned about carbon leakage to countries with more lenient or no carbon pricing. A common policy measure against leakage is output-based allocation of emissions allowances, whose effectiveness could be further enhanced by consumption taxes levied on the carbon intensity of goods. We combine theoretical and numerical analysis to derive optimal combinations of output-based allocation and consumption taxes for different assumptions on the stringency of emissions reduction targets, the coverage of emissions in regulated sectors, and their trade exposure.

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