Acceleration typically stops once wind has reached about 2% (median, IQR 1-4%) of its capacity potential or 4% (2-6%) of electricity supply, much earlier than standard S-curve expectations. Thereafter, deployment enters a steady-growth phase – quasi-linear expansion of roughly 0.8 percentage points (p.p.) (0.6-1.0 p.p.) of electricity per year – punctuated by policy-driven growth pulses. These cruising speeds remain remarkably consistent across countries and over time, reflecting a stable balance between technical, economic, political, and socio-technical constraints.
Responding to the 2022 energy crisis and rising climate concerns, recent policies aim to double the median cruising speed but without exceeding maximum historical speeds. Policy-driven acceleration of mature technologies is possible and should be interpreted in terms of sustaining fast growth for longer periods rather than continuously increasing the speed.
