Yet, scenario developers face difficulties to represent all rele- vant causalities, assess the realism of assumptions, assign likelihood to poten- tial outcomes, and evaluate the agency of their users, which calls for external feasibility assessments. Existing approaches to feasibility assessment mirror the“inside” and the“outside” view coined by Kahneman and co-authors. The inside view considers climate change as a unique challenge and seeks to iden- tify barriers that should be overcome by political choice, commitment, and skill.
The outside view assesses feasibility through examining historical analo- gies (reference cases) to the given climate option. Recent studies seek to bridge the inside and the outside views through“feasibility spaces,” by identifying ref- erence cases for a climate option, measuring their outcomes and relevant char- acteristics, and mapping them together with the expected outcomes and characteristics of the climate option. Feasibility spaces are a promising method to prioritize climate options, realistically assess the achievability of climate goals, and construct scenarios with empirically-grounded assumptions.
